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For the first time in 10 years, The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of our area to a rare Level 4 “Significant Risk” of seeing severe weather this afternoon and evening. The Significant Risk of storms is highlighted in the red zone on the map above. Much of the rest of the region remains under an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5).
This comes as a cold front looks to move through our region this evening. This cold front will likely develop a broken line of thunderstorms as it moves eastward. The main threats this evening are damaging winds up to 65-80mph+, small hail, and even the threat of a spin-up tornado.
Our Hi-Resolution Futurecast seems to have a good handle on today’s severe weather threat. While we will start the day quiet, it will not stay that. The quicker we can burn off the morning cloud cover, the more atmospheric storm energy will develop, which could potentially support strong storms.
Futurecast shows a broken line of storms pushing out of the mountains after lunchtime. This area of storminess will gradually work its way eastward through the afternoon. Futurecast believes that this may move through Southern Md this evening. It is important to note here not to take this one model depiction as gospel.
The highest threat today is seeing damaging winds between 60-85mph with any storms that develop. The storms we saw last week contained winds that high, which left tens of thousands of SMECO customers in the dark. There is also an elevated tornado threat. To me, it seems like the highest chance of a spin-up tornado will be north of DC, but all regions have the threat.
It will be important to say weather aware and to be prepared for weather conditions that could change quickly! We may see severe weather alerts get issued throughout the afternoon and evening, so you will want to have a way to get those alerts (JB Weather is a great choice)!
Say with JB Weather for the latest information. I will be in the weather center all afternoon and evening tracking the latest developments on today’s active weather. You can always access my forecasts and updates here on the website, on Facebook, on Twitter, on Instagram, and on YouTube. JB Weather is Southern Maryland’s Weather Leader!
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