First Call: Accumulating snow likely Thursday night

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NEW UPDATE: A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for our region for Thursday night.

After a slow start to winter, we have seen things flip to kick off January. Our region saw a significant snowstorm to kick off the week, the largest in nearly six years for some spots, and winter weather threatens again to close out the week. An area of low pressure will develop across the Mid-South by the middle of this week. The developing system will then head towards the coastline, sliding south of our region, thanks to a fresh injection of cold air that will suppress the storm track. This setup will lead to a widespread snow event across much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast from Thursday into Friday.

Timing

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We will likely see snow begin out by seeing snowflakes fly across the Mountains during the late afternoon and early evening hours. The area of precipitation will gradually work its way eastward throughout the evening. It should arrive in Southern Maryland between 8-11pm. The graphic below gives a general idea of the starts times for the snow. Temperatures are likely to be just above freezing around this time, which may lead some spots to start with rain or sleet at the onset. However, as colder air works into the region, any rain or sleet will quickly go over to snow. Our area may see some bands of moderate snow set up over our region throughout the night, helping to ramp up accumulations. We should see the storm begin to depart between 2-4am across the region.

Accumulation Map

This storm is a fast-moving one, which will limit how much snow can fall. I believe that will prevent this storm from mirroring the storm that just moved through on Monday. With that said, the southern storm track will help put some of the higher accumulation along the coast and in the southern Appalachians. The highest mountain tops may see 4-6″ thanks to colder temperatures. I currently think these zones could see 2-4″ of snow. A broad zone of 1-3″ covers much of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. I think many spots will likely see at least an inch of snow from this system. Totals drop off once you head towards Central/Southeast Virginia. More rain is likely here before the transition to snow, which will keep amounts limited.

Locally, I think 2-4″ of snow looks likely across Southern Maryland and the Northern Neck. If I had to narrow it down some, I believe most spots south of Annapolis and north of Great Mils will see 3-4″. It is possible that some communities in that zone could see locally higher totals, closer to 4-5″. However, I don’t think it is super likely that we see that occur regionwide. The quick pace of the storm will prevent overly high totals. With that said, high impacts are likely Friday morning due to the snow.

Regional Impacts

This storm will look to have an overall medium threat across the region. We are not looking at overly significant snow totals, but moderate snow accumulations look likely. I’m not too worried about a prolonged period of sleet or ice with this storm like some spots saw Monday morning. We will have gusty winds across the region, bringing medium impacts to the area. As you can see on the graphic below, wind gusts of 30-40mph will be possible Friday morning. The silver lining here is that the winds will begin to pick up as the storm moves away Friday morning. The highest winds will likely be between sunrise and lunchtime on Friday. These winds could lead to blowing & drifting snow, causing reduced visibilities and scattered power outages, once again.

Additionally, we are likely to see high travel impacts region Friday morning. We will likely see snow-covered roadways just in time for the morning commute. Road temperatures are already pretty cold, and the incoming shot of cold air will help ensure that they stay that way. Friday, I would expect regionwide issues on area roadways, even major highways. I suspect that this will lead to areawide closures and delays on Friday. However, we will detail that more as we get closer to the event.

Storm FAQs

How confident are you in your forecast? My confidence in this forecast is high. It looks very likely that we will see a system bring precip to the region Thursday night into Friday morning. It is also very likely that we see cold air move in Thursday night, to ensure that most of what falls is snow.

Will this event be like Monday’s storm? No. While the track looks similar to Monday’s storm, this system will be moving much quicker and be much weaker. Both of those factors will limit the duration of precipitation and how heavy the precipitation can be.

Where will the heaviest snow fall? The highest snow totals will be in the Mountains and southeast of I-95, where the heavier precipitation is likely to set up. Some spots south of Annapolis may see as much as 3-4″+. However, the quickness of the storm will limit how much snow can pile up.

When will the snow start? Current guidance shows that the snow may begin west of I-95 by 8/9pm and across southern Maryland by 11pm/12am.

When will the heaviest snow fall? The moderate bands of snow are likely to set up and move through between 11pm-2am. That is a short time frame with the moderate snow, but the cold air will help ensure that whatever falls will stick.

When will the snow end? The storm looks to be out of here by sunrise on Friday. Granted, impacts will linger throughout the day on Friday.

How much snow will I get at my house? Check out the accumulation map. Generally, I’m expecting 2-4″ for most of the region.

Could more or less snow fall than currently forecast? Absolutely. In order for more snow to happen, we would need the storm to slow down, to increase the duration of precipitation, and to be stronger, to increase the amount of precipitation that can fall. It is not likely that we will see significant changes in either category from what I am forecasting right now. If the storm were to move quicker, be weaker, or feature less cold air moving in, then we could see lower totals. I feel confident that we will have enough cold air present, but it is possible that we see the storm move quicker. In light of these plausible scenarios, here’s my assessment of snowfall probabilities:

10% chance: Less than an inch
20% chance: 1-2″
50% chance: 2-4″
20% chance: 4-6″

As you can see, I feel pretty confident that we will see at least a couple of inches of snow across the region Friday morning. The chances of seeing less than an inch are very low, around a 1 in 10 chance.

Will the snow stick? It is likely that we see snow accumulation on both grassy surfaces and on roadways. The recent cold shot after Monday’s storm has helped to really bring down ground and road temperatures. I think the snow will have no problem sticking as soon as it falls, which is what will lead to area-wide issues.

Any chance of a wintry mix of freezing rain or sleet? The threat of freezing rain or sleet with this storm is low. Some spots may see a quick burst of sleet as we transition over to snow late Thursday night. However, I highly doubt that we will see any impactful ice accumulations. At most, there may be a quarter-inch layer of iced-over slush on blacktop surfaces before the snow falls.

Summary

All-in-all, it does look likely that we will see our second snowfall this week, late Thursday into early Friday. However, I am not expecting this to mirror Monday’s event at all. This storm is moving much quicker and weaker than the system on Monday. However. a decent 2-4″ of snow looks likely across the region. We are likely to see high impacts as we head into Friday morning. Roads are likely to be snow-covered, and some scattered power outages are yet again possible thanks to gusty winds. I would expect regionwide delays and closures for Friday as a result. We will need to monitor how fast the system moves and how strong it gets. Both will play significant roles in determining how much snow does indeed fall and what the impacts could look like.

Stay with JB Weather for the latest information on impacts here in Southern Maryland. You can always access my forecasts and updates here on the website, on Facebook, on Twitter, and on YouTube. JB Weather is Southern Maryland’s Weather Leader, and I am working around the clock to keep you ahead of any storm!

-JB

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