Forecast: Risk of Afternoon and Evening Storms

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Almost every day this week has featured the threat of afternoon and evening thunderstorms, thanks to the southerly flow that has increased the humidity across the region. Sure enough, we look to have another chance of storms today, but this chance looks to be higher than the last few days.

We have some showers moving through parts of Virginia now, but we should see some peeks of sunshine later this morning, and through the early afternoon hours. This will allow temperatures to warm into the middle to upper 80s after lunchtime. Dewpoint values will be nearing 70°, which will make it feel quite humid, as well. This will set the stage for potential storms this afternoon and evening.

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Futuecast shows that we may start to see some scattered storms form out west early this afternoon. We may see these storms try to develop in a broken line as they migrate eastward. If we see enough sun, heat, and humidity this afternoon, then these storms would have the potential to become strong to severe as they move through.

The Storm Prediction Center has placed our region under a Level 1 “Marginal Risk” of severe weather for today. This means that the thunderstorm threat looks quite common for this time of year and that only a couple of storms may be strong or severe.

However, I would not be surprised to see an Elevated Risk be issued if we see some late morning sunshine. This would increase the fuel that thunderstorms may have available. This would allow for more numerous storms to develop and increase how strong they could become. Nevertheless, the primary timing for potential storms looks to be between 3pm-11pm.

The primary threats this afternoon and evening appear to be the threat of damaging winds up to 60-65mph and the threat of heavy rain that could lead to localized flooding. Thankfully, the threat of hail and tornadoes looks quite low.

If you have outdoor plans this afternoon and evening, I would not cancel them. It is very possible that we see fewer storms than expected if we lack adequate storm energy. However, I would stay aware and think of a Plan B if things do start to fire this afternoon. Conditions could change quickly, so be ready to act.

Stay with JB Weather for the latest information on Southern Maryland weather. You can always access my forecasts and updates here on the website, on Facebook, on Twitter, on Instagram, and on YouTube.

-JB

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