The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Level 2 “Elevated Risk” of severe storms across the Northern Mid-Atlantic for this afternoon. This comes as a developing area of storminess looks to bring the threat of damaging wind gusts, heavy rain, and the chance of a spin-up tornado or two to this region.
A mesoscale low-pressure system traversing the Ohio River Valley will be responsible for this threat. In the radar/satellite imagery above, you can see the swirling storms and clouds as this low pressure moves eastward. This system originated out in the southwest yesterday, moved through the Plains last night, and will look to move through the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon.
Our Chesapeake’s Bounty Futurecast shows that this system will make its way across Pennsylvania during the midday and early afternoon hours. This will look to move through the Harrisburg, PA area between 11am-3pm before moving through the Philadelphia, PA area between 2pm-6pm.
As mentioned above, the severe weather risk with this event will be focused north of the Mason Dixon line, across PA and NJ. The main threat with this system would be damaging wind gusts up to 70mph, heavy rain, and the threat of a couple of brief, spin-up tornadoes.
Interests across this region should stay weather aware this afternoon and be ready to take action if severe warnings are issued.
Keep in mind that severe weather forecasting is far from a guarantee of anything. The goal of these forecasts is to alert you to the potential of storms, not a promise of storms.