Update: Threat of Heavy Rain & Storms through the Evening

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As we move through the afternoon, the threat of rain, which could become heavy at times, will continue. There is even the threat of a thunderstorm or two. Earlier, the Storm Prediction Center placed parts of our area under a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of seeing one or two strong to severe thunderstorms this evening. This is focused primarily on our southeastern-most communities.

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Futurecast continues to show a round of rain this afternoon & evening. This would likely move through sometime between 3pm and 8pm. Locally heavy rain is very possible with this round with the potential of 1 or 2 embedded storms as well.

Today's forecast: https://t.co/mxjt2qhsZm pic.twitter.com/5iVLmeCu6r

— Forecaster John (@jb_weather) April 7, 2022

This threat comes as a cold front looks to move through our region this evening. We have already seen rounds of rain push through the region so far today. With that said, this incoming cold front will likely develop an additional area of rain that will have a couple of embedded thunderstorms with it, as it eastward. The main threats this evening are damaging winds up to 45-60mph, small hail, and even the threat of a spin-up tornado.

https://jbweather.net/wp-content/uploads/2022/04/040722-2.mp4

Our Chesapeake’s Bounty Futurecast does a great job of showing the potential threat in our area. Our current break from the rain will allow many of our southeastern zones to see their temperatures spike up into the 60s and low 70s. As we near the PM Rush Hour, we will be looking towards our southwest as an additional round of rain develops.

We will need to watch closely to see if embedded thunderstorms are able to develop and tap into the low-end atmospheric conditions to support 1 or 2 severe storms. If this is able to happen, the region that would most likely see these would be across the Northern Neck, southern St. Mary’s County, and southern Calvert County. The timeframe to watch would be 3-8pm. At the very least, localized heavy downpours do look likely for some.

Keep in mind that severe weather forecasting is far from a guarantee of anything. The goal of these forecasts is to alert you to the potential of storms, not a promise of storms. 

Stay with JB Weather for the latest information on Southern Maryland weather. You can always access my forecasts and updates here on the website, on Facebook, on Twitter, on Instagram, and on YouTube.

-JB

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