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With today’s high heat and humidity comes the risk of afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The combination of the high heat and humidity will lead to quite an unstable atmosphere. With this in mind, the Storm Prediction Center has upgraded parts of the region to an Elevated Risk (Level 2 of 5) of seeing severe storms. The main threats will come from damaging winds and the risk of localized flash flooding.
Our latest guidance continues to depict high CAPE values (thunderstorm energy levels) across the region. We are also noting that temperatures cool off greatly throughout the atmosphere, which helps to make our atmospheric conditions more unstable. These two components will prime the atmosphere for at least some storm development. Given the stronger forcing and the development of a bay breeze off the Chesapeake, we will likely see a boundary across central VA and north-central MD to help kick start storm development this afternoon.These atmospheric parameters are similar to what we observed earlier in the week, and today likely will not be any different. West to east storm development looks to occur mainly after 3pm. We may see some scattered storms continue after sunset as well. Our Chesapeake’s Bounty Futurecast plays this potential scenario out well.
Say with JB Weather for the latest information on impacts here in Southern Maryland. You can always access my forecasts and updates here on the website, on Facebook, on Twitter, and on YouTube. JB Weather is Southern Maryland’s Weather Leader, and I am working around the clock to keep you ahead of the storm!
-JB
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