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Get your sunscreen, swimsuits, and rainboots ready! In coordination with the Climate Prediction Center, the National Weather Service issued its 2022 Summer outlook on Thursday. It’s looking like a hot and wet summer is on tap for just about everyone this year, especially along the East Coast!
The official outlook favors above-average temperatures across the country this Summer. The forecast is probability-based, and the deeper orange and red colors depict the highest probabilities of above-average temperatures. Our region has about a 50-60% chance of seeing above-average temperatures this summer, significantly higher than normal.
When you add up a day’s high and low temperatures and divide it by two, you receive their average temperature. You can do this process over the course of many days or months to find a season’s average temperature. Over the last 21 years, Southern Maryland’s seasonal temperature has been 74.1° during the months of June, July, and August. If this outlook is correct, this would be our third summer in a row out of the last six to feature above-average temperatures. The table below shows temperature averages over the last 5 years.
| YEAR | JUNE | JUL | AUG | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 71.4° | 76.5° | 72° | 73.3° |
| 2018 | 71.5° | 74.7° | 76.1° | 74.1° |
| 2019 | 71° | 77° | 74.2° | 74.1° |
| 2020 | 71.6° | 78° | 75.1° | 74.9° |
| 2021 | 71.5° | 76° | 75.3° | 74.3° |
| AVG | 71.9° | 75.9° | 74.5° | 74.1° |
An interesting note here is that we have seen June feature slightly below average temperatures before July and August feature above-average temperatures over the five years! This suggests that we have been in a summer routine, getting off to a slow start in June before ramping in July and August.
The official outlook also favors above-average precipitation along the East Coast this summer. Like the temperature outlook, this precipitation outlook is also probability-based. Our region has a 40-50% chance of seeing an above-average amount of precipitation, which is a noticeable likelihood!
Over the last 21 years, Southern Maryland has typically averaged 14.7″ of rainfall during the months of June, July, and August. If this outlook is correct, this would be our sixth summer in a row with above-average precipitation. The table below shows rainfall totals over the last 5 years.
| YEAR | JUNE | JUL | AUG | TOTAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2017 | 2.5″ | 7.01″ | 9.29″ | 18.8″ |
| 2018 | 7.06″ | 12.88″ | 4.28″ | 24.22″ |
| 2019 | 5.49 | 6.28″ | 4.61″ | 16.92″ |
| 2020 (R) | 4.35″ | 13.95″ (R) | 19.55″ (R) | 35.85″ (R) |
| 2021 | 4.37″ | 4.98″ | 7.67″ | 17.02″ |
| AVG | 4.38″ | 4.87″ | 5.44″ | 14.69″ |
2020 should stand out to many! The (R) located next to the value represents record values! July and August of 2020 were record wet months, thanks to an active storm track in July and Hurricane Isaisis in August. While we should avoid rainfall amounts like that, we could see values similar to 2021 and 2019.
The main driver behind this forecast is the continued presence of a phenomenon called “La Niña.” La Niña is a phase of the metric El Nino Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, which measures sea surface temperatures in along the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. The La Niña phase of ENSO is characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific. Conversely, the El Niño phase of ENSO is characterized by unusually warm ocean temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific.
The presence of La Niña typically tends to promote warmer Summer-time temperatures and active severe weather seasons, both of which are possible this Summer.
Another important factor would be the sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic Ocean. Warmer than average water temperatures along the East Coast would tend to favor an active storm track along the coastline, enhancing local rainfall totals. These warmer waters may also interact with the La Niña to promote another active hurricane season. Details on the hurricane season will be forthcoming in a few days– so stay tuned!
Stay with JB Weather for the latest information on Southern Maryland weather. You can always access my forecasts and updates here on the website, on Facebook, on Twitter, on Instagram, and on YouTube.
-JB
Dr. Thomas Hao and Dr. Dylan Schneider offer comprehensive orthodontic services for all ages. Schedule your free consultation today. Visit www.SOMDBraces.com today for more information!
