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September marks the peak of Hurricane Season in the Atlantic Basin. This is the month the features the highest number of tropical storms and hurricanes that develop across the Basin. Sure enough, almost as if on cue, we are seeing the Topical Atlantic heat up. This morning, we are watching five different areas of potential tropical development. Some areas have higher chances of development than others, some pose more of a threat than others, and we know about some of these areas than others. I want to focus on the three areas that appear to be the most likely to develop.
Invest 94-L: Gulf of Mexico
The area with the highest chance of tropical development is Invest 94-L in the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center currently pegs chances of tropical development at 90% over the next 24-48 hours. It is very likely that we see this system become our next named storm, which would be Nicholas.
The exact track of 94-L still offers some uncertainty. All of our guidance this morning generally shows that this developing area will lift to the north over the next few days. If the system takes a track further to the west, it would quickly run into Mexico, limiting its intensity. An eastern track would suggest the potential for a stronger system. This sort of track would likely hug the Texas coastline, spreading heavy rain across the TX coastline, and potentially the LA coastline. We will have to see how 94-L tracks over the next 24 hours.
Any small wobbles west or east will be important. The environment is not overly conducive for a strong system, even if 94-L took a track to the east. I think the ceiling here would be either an upper-end tropical storm or a low-end hurricane. Nevertheless, rain is likely to be the big story here. All interests in Texas and western Louisiana should monitor this system closely.
Potential System in the Western Atlantic
An area of low pressure is expected to form north of the Bahamas in a few days resulting from a tropical wave interacting with an upper-level area of low pressure. We have yet to see this interaction happen, so there is no designated system to watch at the moment. However, if this interaction does happen, gradual development of any resulting system is possible. The National Hurricane Center places development odds over the next 5 days at about 50%. Any system that forms would gradually work northward. Its exact track and strength are not known right now, largely because there is no system right now. With that said, this will need to be something that is watched over the next week.
Wave Coming off of Africa
A tropical wave is set to come off of the African coast over the next couple of days. There is not much to it right now, as it is still over the African continent. As this wave emerges over the eastern Atlantic, it will be welcomed with very favorable atmospheric conditions. Odds have been increasing that we see this wave become a tropical system. The National Hurricane Center places odds at 60%, but, as noted, those odds have been rising this weekend. All indications are that we will see this system track westward across the tropical Atlantic next week, gradually strengthening. It is very possible that this system becomes a hurricane thanks to the warm waters and conducive atmospheric conditions. The long-term track is unknown right now. It is not clear if this eventual storm will threaten land or curve out to sea. If it were to threaten land, it likely would not do so over the next 7 days. This will just be a system to watch. We will learn more about it, and its potential long-term track, over the next several days.
Now that we are at the heart of hurricane season, we will have to keep an eye on the tropics. The Atlantic is awakening, and we are likely in store for a busy 4-7 weeks! Stay with JB Weather for the latest information for tropical weather updates and information on Southern Maryland weather. You can always access my forecasts and updates here on the website, on Facebook, on Twitter, and on YouTube.
-JB
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