We’re keeping a close eye on Tropical Storm Melissa this evening as she drifts slowly in the Caribbean Sea. While her movement will remain minimal for the next couple of days, the environment around her is primed for strengthening. Warm ocean waters, high moisture, and very little wind shear will combine to create near-perfect conditions for intensification as we head into the weekend.
By Saturday and Sunday, Melissa is expected to begin rapidly intensifying, possibly reaching hurricane strength by late Saturday and becoming a major hurricane by Monday. Several forecast models are in strong agreement that Melissa could become a powerful system early next week, with winds potentially exceeding 115–130 mph as she tracks west-northwest across the central Caribbean. This is a classic setup for explosive tropical development, and the trend will need to be watched closely.
Eventually, Melissa will have to turn northward, and when she does, Jamaica and Cuba may face significant impacts by the middle to end of next week. Beyond that point, confidence drops, and there are still big questions about her long-term path. One scenario worth monitoring is whether Melissa interacts with a potential dip in the Jet Stream over the eastern U.S. late next week. It’s far too early to speculate on U.S. impacts, but the pattern suggests we should stay alert. Plenty to watch over the next several days.
John Bordash
View More PostsJB Weather forecaster John Bordash is working around the clock to provide Southern Maryland, and neighboring communities, with accurate and reliable weather information.
