For the first time since the historic 2002-03 drought, Extreme Drought (Level 3) conditions have officially developed across portions of Southern Maryland and the lower Delmarva. While some improvement has occurred northwest of DC, thanks to recent rounds of rainfall, our region continues to miss out on the meaningful, widespread soaking rains needed to reverse months of accumulating deficits.
Over the last 90 days, much of Southern Maryland has received only 45-50% of normal precipitation, but this drought did not begin this spring. Our region has been running below normal on precipitation since before winter, allowing deficits to steadily build.
The result is now being seen in the form of near-record low streamflows, declining groundwater levels, stressed vegetation, and increasingly dry soils. Current estimates suggest Southern Maryland would need 13-15″ of rainfall over the next 2-3 months just to eliminate the existing drought conditions.
Looking ahead, there will be opportunities for thunderstorms in the forecast, but relying on summertime storms is a risky proposition. Thunderstorms are notoriously hit-or-miss, and drought itself can make rainfall harder to come by. As soils dry out, more of the sun’s energy goes into heating the ground rather than evaporating moisture. This creates hotter, drier air near the surface, which can cause developing storms to weaken or rainfall to evaporate before reaching the ground. In many cases, drought becomes a self-reinforcing cycle, making meaningful recovery a slow process even when rain chances begin to increase. Even with a more active pattern over the next week or two, drought conditions will continue to persist.
John Bordash
View More PostsJB Weather forecaster John Bordash is working around the clock to provide Southern Maryland, and neighboring communities, with accurate and reliable weather information.
